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Research & Insights

Forecast - Monthly Archive

We provide access to each Economic & Housing Outlook from the past four years.

October

U.S. Economic Footing Firmer Than Previously Thought, Projected to Expand 2.3 Percent in 2024

September

Existing Home Sales on Pace to Hit Nearly 30-Year Low, Despite Recently Lower Rates

August

Sluggish Home Sales Expected as Consumers Hold Out for Improved Affordability

July

Home Price Growth Expected to Moderate as Listings Outpace Sales

June

Unaffordability Expected to Remain Primary Constraint on Home Sales

May

Higher Rate Environment Projected to Dampen Housing Activity Through 2024

April

Hot Economy, Inflation Likely to Keep Rates ‘Higher for Longer’

March

Higher Mortgage Rate Forecast Leads to Decline in 2024 Home Sales Expectations

February

Housing Activity Expected to Pick Up in 2024 as Rates Move Lower

January

Mortgage Rates Expected to Dip Below 6 Percent in 2024, Boosting Home Sales

December

Home Sales, Mortgage Originations Likely to Begin Slow Recovery in 2024

November

Economy Expected to Slow in 2024, Rebound in 2025

October

Jump in Long-Term Interest Rates Expected to Weigh on Economy

September

Mild Recession Remains Likeliest Outcome as Inflation and Labor Markets Cool

August

Sticking the 'Soft Landing' Remains a Difficult Task

July

Inflation is Slowing, But Fully Quelling It Will Be Tough

June

Mixed Data Complicates Economic Forecast, though Recession Remains Likely

May

Recession Remains Likely as Credit Conditions Tighten

April

Economy Resumes Gradual Slowdown Following Bank Turmoil

March

Banking System Instability May Prove Catalyst for Recession

February

Economy Off to Surprisingly Strong Start in 2023, But It’s Not Expected to Last

January

Housing Sector Awaits Improvement in Affordability; Modest Recession Still Expected

December

Economy Expected to End 2022 on Positive Note Ahead of Modest Recession in New Year

 

November

Economy Still Expected to Enter (and Exit) Modest Recession in 2023

 

October

Economy Expected to Contract Further in 2023, as the Fed Appears Resolved to Tame Inflation

 

September

Economic Indicators Continue to Point to Likely Recession in 2023

 

August

Economy Constrained by Competing Effects of Elevated Inflation and Strong Labor Market

 

July

Economic Growth Stagnating as Record Inflation Persists

 

June

Elevated Inflation, Higher Interest Rates Expected to Take Toll on Consumer Spending

 

May

Rapidly Rising Rates and Persistent Inflation Further Soften Economic Outlook

 

April

Economic Growth Forecast Downgraded as ‘Soft Landing’ Appears Increasingly Unlikely

 

March

Inflation and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Expected to Take Toll on U.S. Economy and Housing Sector

 

February

Economic Growth Expected to Slow as the Fed Wrangles Inflation

 

January

The Economy and Housing to Turn Toward 'New Normal' in 2022

December

Economy Finishes 2021 Strong; Inflation is Top Risk Concern for 2022

 

November

Inflation Remains Primary Macroeconomic Concern, as Fed Contemplates Additional Action

 

October

Economic Growth Again Revised Downward Due to Supply Chain and Inflation Concerns

 

September

Supply and Labor Constraints Continue to Hinder Economic Growth, Home Sales

 

August

U.S. Economy Again Limited by COVID and Supply Chain Concerns

 

July

Economy Transitioning from Consumer-Led Recovery to More Balanced Growth as Inflation Risks Remain

 

June

Inflation Risk Takes Center Stage as Strong Economic Growth Expected to Moderate

 

May

Economy Expected to Heat Up Through the Summer as Inflation Risks Mount

 

April

Rapid Acceleration in Economic Growth Expected as Social Restrictions Ease

 

March

Economic Growth Expected to Accelerate through Spring as COVID-19 Lockdown Restrictions Ease

 

February

U.S. Economy Expected to Expand at 6.7 Percent Clip in 2021

 

January

Economic Growth Expected to Accelerate as Vaccine Deployment Quickens and Warmer Weather Approaches

December

Economy Poised for Considerably Stronger 2021 as COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Efforts Commence

 

November

U.S. Economic Health Heavily Dependent on COVID-19 Path

 

October

Economic Recovery Continues at Slower Pace

 

September

2020 U.S. Economic Forecast Upgraded Despite Heightened Risks

 

August

U.S. Economy Poised for Substantial Rebound Following Historic Second Quarter Contraction


July

Economic Growth Expectations Improve Slightly, Remain Tied to Broader COVID-19 Recovery


June

U.S. Economic Growth Expectations Largely Unchanged as Lockdown Restrictions Ease


May

Real GDP Growth Expected to Contract Sharply in the Second Quarter


April

Record U.S. Expansion Likely Undone by COVID-19


March

Resilience of U.S. Economy Tested by COVID-19 Outbreak and Oil Price Shock


February

U.S. Economic Resilience on Display as Coronavirus and Manufacturing Concerns Reverberate Through Markets


January

Consumers Lead Economic Expansion Toward 11th Year with Boost from Housing Construction

December

Strong Economic Data Leads to Upward Revisions in Growth Forecast


November

Economic Outlook for 2020 Upgraded Despite Prominent Downside Risks


October

Housing’s Supporting Role: Residential Fixed Investment Expected to Help Drive Economic Growth into 2020


September

U.S. Economy Reliant on Consumer Spending, Susceptible to Downside Risks


August

Downside Risks Weigh on Economy as the Fed Considers Next Steps


July

As Trade Uncertainty Drags on Growth, Strong Consumer Demand Backstops Slowing U.S. Economy


June

U.S. Economic Forecast for 2019 and 2020 Downgraded as Businesses Confront Heightened Uncertainty


May

Economy Expected to Slow Through Remainder of 2019, Despite Strong First Quarter Growth


April

U.S. Economy Still on Track to Slow in 2019


March

2019 Economic Growth Slowing, As Expected


February

Fannie Mae Holds 2019 Forecast Steady at 2.2 Percent Growth and One Fed Rate Hike


January

Slower Economic Growth Expected in 2019, but a Patient Fed Could Put Housing on Firmer Footing

December

Housing Expected to Stabilize in 2019 as Economic Growth Slows


November

2018 Growth Forecast Upped Slightly, but Strong Labor Market not Enough to Boost Housing


October

2018 and 2019 Growth Outlooks Steady as Housing Falters


September

Third Quarter Growth Strong but Checked by Trade, Weaker Gains in Consumer and Business Demand


August

2018 Growth Forecast Upgraded Again, No Thanks to Housing


July

2018 Growth Outlook Upgraded on Q2 Growth Spike


June

Forecast Unchanged but Trade Tensions Flare and the Fed Tightens


May

2018 Growth Forecast Holds But 2019 Gets Modest Downgrade


April

Strong Growth Outlook Persists Even As Risks Rise


March

2018 and 2019 Economic Growth Outlooks Upgraded on Stimulus Passage


February

Growth Outlook Unchanged Despite Recent Market Volatility


January

Tax Reform Expected to Boost Growth, if the Fed Gets It Right

December

Economy Expected to End 2017 on a Cheerful Note


November

Post-Hurricane Economic Resiliency and Business Optimism Drive 2017 Growth Forecast Higher


October

Economic Growth Outlook Unchanged Following Recent Hurricanes


September

Growth Warms Even as Hurricanes Cloud Economic Outlook


August

Upside Offsets Downside, Keeps Economic Growth on Pace


July

Expansion Expected to Decelerate in Second Half


June

Economic Growth Rebound Is in the Cards, but Fiscal and Monetary Policy Could Shuffle the Deck


May

Another Second Quarter Rebound Likely to Follow First Quarter Slowdown


April

Political Holding Pattern Affirms Conservative Growth Forecast


March

Growth Forecast Unchanged Ahead of Expected Rate Hike


February

Policy Uncertainty Remains at the Center of Modest Growth Expectations


January

2017 Outlook: Will Policy Changes Extend the Expansion?

December

Confidence Improves at the Prospect of Pro-Growth Policies


November

Modest Economic Growth Expected Despite Legislative and Regulatory Uncertainty


October

A Decent, but Not Great, Second Half of the Year Expected for U.S. Economy


September

Economic Growth on the Upswing, With a Few Emerging Soft Spots


August

Consumer Spending Expected to Bolster Economic Growth Outlook for Second Half of 2016


July

Economic Growth Outlook Unchanged for Second Half of 2016, but Post-Brexit Uncertainty Casts Shadow


June

Economic Growth Outlook Holds Steady for 2016


May

Economic Growth Outlook Subpar Again as 2016 Progresses


April

Economic Growth Outlook Remains Little Changed Despite First-Quarter Stall


March

Economic Growth Outlook Little Changed Despite Improving Financial Market Conditions


February

2016 - Moderate Economic Growth Amid Financial Market Turmoil


January

2016 Outlook: Housing Affordability Constrains as Expansion Matures

December

Economic Growth Ends 2015 on Course, Paves Way for Fed Rate Liftoff


November

Economy Remains on Firm Footing Amid Global Risks


October

Economic Growth Expected to Weather Headwinds


September

Second Half Growth Expected to Outweigh Recent Market Volatility


August

Economic Growth Outlook Less Upbeat for the Second Half of the Year

July

Economy Building Momentum into Second Half of the Year


June

Economic Rebound on the Horizon with Q1 Slump in Rearview Mirror


May

2015 Economic Growth Forecast Downgraded, but Housing on a Better Path


April

Q1 Economic Growth Measures Downsized, but Expected to Spring Forward


March

A Soft Start to 2015, but Acceleration Expected


February

Strong Job Growth Foreshadows Solid Full-Year Economic Growth


January

2015 Economic Outlook: Economy Drags Housing Upward