Home Purchase Sentiment Index Caps Off Strong 2019 Near Its Survey High
HPSI’s Strength Supportive of Upgraded Housing Forecast for 2020
WASHINGTON, DC – The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) remained mostly flat in December, increasing 0.2 points to 91.7 and inching nearer the survey high set in August. Three of the six HPSI components increased month over month, including the percentage of Americans who believe that home prices will go up over the next 12 months, which rose from 44% to 50%. Year over year, the HPSI is up 8.2 points, driven primarily by consumers’ favorable mortgage rate expectations and a growing share reporting it’s a good time to buy a home.
During much of 2019 consumers reported being held back by high home prices and the shortage of houses available for purchase. However, partly in response to evidence from the HPSI demonstrating strong consumer sentiment, Fannie Mae’s most recent macroeconomic outlook incorporated upgrades to the 2020 forecasts for single-family housing starts, new home sales, and mortgage originations.
“The continued strength in the HPSI attests to the intention among consumers to purchase homes. This is consistent with the Fannie Mae forecast for 2020,” said Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The HPSI hit and remained near an all-time high in 2019, driven by the 16-percentage point year-over-year increase in the share of consumers believing it is a good time to buy. The HPSI’s strength supports our prediction of a healthy housing market in 2020, as well as consumers’ appetite and ability to absorb the expected increase in entry-level inventory.”
On this webpage you will find a news release with highlights from the HPSI and NHS results, the latest Data Release highlighting the consumer attitudinal indicators, month-over-month key indicator data, an overview and white paper about the HPSI, technical notes providing in-depth information about the NHS methodology, the questionnaire used for the survey, and a comparative assessment of Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey and other consumer surveys.
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