Mortgage Credit Standards Are Easing, According to Lenders
WASHINGTON, DC – Fannie Mae’s third quarter 2015 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey™ reveals that more lenders report easing of mortgage lending standards across all loan types. Conducted in August 2015, the survey asked senior mortgage executives whether their lending organization’s credit standards have eased, tightened, or remained essentially unchanged for GSE eligible, non-GSE eligible, and government loans during the prior three months. Notably, the gap between lenders reporting easing as opposed to tightening over the prior three months jumped to 20 percentage points and 18 percentage points for GSE eligible and non-GSE eligible loans, respectively—reaching new survey highs of “net easing.” In addition, the share of lenders who expect their organizations to ease credit standards over the next three months ticked up this quarter for both GSE eligible and non-GSE eligible loans.
“For the first time in seven quarters, we see a pronounced increase in the share of lenders, particularly medium- and larger-sized lenders, reporting on net an easing of credit standards in both the GSE eligible and non-GSE eligible loan categories. This is a significant result in light of public discourse on credit availability and standards,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “Our survey responses appear to reflect multiple factors at play. Lenders may be becoming more comfortable with the GSEs’ updated guidelines intended to provide them greater certainty regarding representations and warranties. Lenders also may be getting more familiar with the regulatory and compliance environment. Finally, lenders may be removing credit overlays. Overall, we expect that lenders’ tendency toward easing credit standards, together with relatively low mortgage rates and a strengthening labor market, will continue to support the housing market expansion.”
MORTGAGE LENDER SENTIMENT SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS
Differences in Economic and Housing Sentiment between Senior Mortgage Executives Surveyed in the Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey and General Consumers Surveyed in the National Housing Survey™
- Senior mortgage executives continue to be more optimistic about the economy than general consumers.
- Senior mortgage executives continue to be more optimistic than general consumers about future home prices.
- Senior mortgage executives continue to be less optimistic than general consumers when it comes to the ease of getting a mortgage today.
Decreased Consumer Purchase Mortgage Demand Reported over the Prior Three Months and Next Three Months
- The share of lenders reporting increased purchase mortgage demand over the prior three months fell slightly this quarter (Q3 2015) from last quarter (Q2 2015), but overall remains at a high level compared with the 2014 readings.
- For purchase mortgage demand over the next three months, the share of lenders expecting demand to go up fell this quarter from last quarter, likely reflecting seasonal influences, but remains higher than the same period last year (Q3 2014).
Continued Easing of Credit Standards Reported
- Lenders continue to report easing credit standards over the prior three months across all loan types. This quarter, the percentage difference between lenders reporting easing, relative to those reporting tightening (“net easing”), has jumped to 20 percentage points and 18 percentage points for GSE eligible and non-GSE eligible loans, respectively, reaching new survey highs.
- The share of lenders reporting that they expect to ease their credit standards over the next three months ticked up slightly this quarter for GSE eligible and non-GSE eligible loans.
Stable Mortgage Execution Outlook
- More institutions reported expectations to increase rather than decrease the shares of loan originations sold to the GSEs and Ginnie Mae over the next 12 months.
Stable Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) Execution Outlook
- More lenders reported expectations to decrease rather than increase the share of their MSRs sold to a third party. In addition, more lenders reported expectations to increase rather than decrease the share of their MSRs retained and serviced by a subservicer.
Fewer Lenders Expecting an Increase in Profit Margin over the Next Three Months
- The share of lenders reporting an increased profit margin outlook over the next three months has fallen significantly this quarter from last quarter, but reached a similar level seen in the same quarter last year (Q3 2014).
The Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey conducted by Fannie Mae polls senior executives of its lending institution customers on a quarterly basis to assess their views and outlook across varied dimensions of the mortgage market. The Fannie Mae third quarter 2015 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey was conducted between August 5, 2015 and August 17, 2015 by Penn Schoen Berland in coordination with Fannie Mae. For detailed findings from the third quarter 2015 survey, as well as survey questionnaires and other supporting documents, please visit the Fannie Mae Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are special topic analyses, which focus on findings and analyses of important industry topics.Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
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