July Monthly National Housing Survey
WASHINGTON, DC – Consumer attitudes toward the housing market are increasingly positive despite the recent steep rise in mortgage interest rates, according to results from Fannie Mae’s July 2013 National Housing Survey. The share of respondents who believe interest rates will go up over the next year increased another 5 percentage points to 62 percent, the highest level in the survey’s three-year history. Consumers also expect home prices to climb 3.9 percent on average over the next 12 months, holding steady from the May and June survey results. At the same time, the share of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a house increased to 74 percent, while the share who say it’s a good time to sell a house increased to 40 percent, matching the survey high.
“Consumers have taken the interest rate rise in stride. Expectations for continued improvement in housing persist, and sentiment toward the current buying and selling environment is back on track from its dip last month,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “These results are consistent with our own analysis of previous housing cycles, which finds that interest rates and home prices are not strongly correlated.”
Homeownership and Renting
- At 3.9 percent, the average 12-month home price change expectation increased slightly to match May 2013’s survey high.
- The share of people who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months fell 4 percentage points from June’s survey high to 53 percent, while those who say home prices will go down reached a survey low of 6 percent.
- The share of respondents who say mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months jumped 5 percentage points to 62 percent, the highest level since the survey’s inception.
- The share who say it is a good time to buy a house increased slightly to 74 percent, and those who say it is a good time to sell a house increased 4 percentage points to 40 percent.
- The average 12-month rental price expectation fell to 4.2 percent, a 0.4 percent decrease from last month.
- Fifty-four percent of those surveyed say home rental prices will go up in the next 12 months, a 2 percentage point decrease from June’s survey high.
- Forty-five percent of respondents think it would be easy for them to get a home mortgage today, a 2 percentage point decrease from last month.
- The share of respondents who said they would buy if they were going to move decreased slightly to 64 percent.
The Economy and Household Finances
- At 40 percent, the share of respondents who say the economy is on the right track increased 2 percentage points from June.
- The share of people who expect their personal financial situation to get better over the next 12 months fell 3 percentage points to 43 percent.
- The share of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago remained steady at the survey high of 26 percent.
- At 30 percent, the share of respondents who say their household expenses are significantly higher than they were 12 months ago fell 6 percentage points from last month.
The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, the Fannie Mae National Housing Survey polled 1,000 Americans via live telephone interview to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, home and rental price changes, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100 questions used to track attitudinal shifts (findings are compared to the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to stabilize the housing market in the near-term, and provide support in the future.
For detailed findings from the July 2013 survey, as well as a podcast providing an audio synopsis of the survey results and technical notes on survey methodology and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Fannie Mae Monthly National Housing Survey site. Also available on the site are in-depth topic analyses, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies. The July 2013 Fannie Mae National Housing Survey was conducted between July 1, 2013 and July 20, 2013. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. Interviews were conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, in coordination with Fannie Mae.Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
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