Home Purchase Sentiment Index Surpasses Survey High, Reaching 86.5 in July
HPSI Returns to Gradual Upward Trend As Housing Market Indicators and Wages Pick Up; Possible Shift Among Millennials Toward Buying Rather than Renting
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) increased 3.3 points to 86.5 in July, reaching a new all-time survey high and indicating a more positive outlook in the housing market-specific HPSI components. Each of the six HPSI components increased in July. The largest increases were seen in the net share of consumers who expect home prices to go up over the next 12 months, which rose 8 percentage points after a drop in June, and the net share of consumers who expect mortgage interest rates to go down over the next 12 months, which rose 5 percentage points. The Household Income component also rebounded after dropping in June, rising 3 percentage points to 11 percent. Notably, the share of consumers who said they would buy if they were going to move increased to 67 percent, while the share of consumers who said they would rent moved down to 26 percent, equaling an all-time National Housing Survey® low.
“The HPSI reached a new survey high this month, but enthusiasm should be tempered because the increase only returns the index to a very gradual upward trend,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “One interesting potential bright note for housing in the July survey is that younger households may finally be shifting toward buying rather than renting in greater numbers. Whether the shift in sentiment in July toward buying rather than renting on their next move holds up or is a temporary reaction to their view that rents are on the rise and mortgage rates will be lower, we will see. However, we are getting set to release some additional research in early August showing evidence of a broader move by older millennials in the direction of ownership.”
On this webpage you will find a news release with highlights from the HPSI and NHS results, the latest Data Release highlighting the consumer attitudinal indicators, month-over-month key indicator data, an overview and white paper about the HPSI, technical notes providing in-depth information about the NHS methodology, the questionnaire used for the survey, and a comparative assessment of Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey and other consumer surveys.
National Housing Survey Monthly Indicators Archive
View an archived list of Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey Monthly Indicators.