Annual Home Price Growth Decelerates in Q4 to 9.2 Percent
WASHINGTON, DC – Single-family home prices increased at a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 9.2 percent in Q4 2022, compared to Q4 2021, down from the previous quarter's revised annual growth rate of 13.1 percent, according to Fannie Mae's (FNMA/OTCQB) latest Home Price Index (FNM-HPI) reading, a national, repeat-transaction home price index measuring the average, quarterly price change for all single-family properties in the United States, excluding condos. On a quarterly basis, home prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent in Q4 2022, just above the 0.1 percent growth seen last quarter. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, home prices declined by 1.0 percent in Q4 2022.
"The rise in mortgage rates over the past year and record inflation have constrained the purchasing power of prospective homebuyers," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. "The resulting affordability pressures are evident in the home price declines of the past two quarters, along with the downturn in homes sales. The rise in rates also exacerbates the 'lock-in effect' in which existing homeowners who have rates well below current market rates have a financial disincentive to give up their current mortgage and purchase a different home at a higher mortgage rate, thereby reducing the supply of homes available for sale. We believe that a key factor that will impact home prices in 2023 is how the tension between a reduced supply of homes available for sale and lower mortgage demand is resolved."
The FNM-HPI is produced by aggregating county-level data to create both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted national indices that are representative of the whole country and designed to serve as indicators of general single-family home price trends. The FNM-HPI is publicly available at the national level as a quarterly series with a start date of Q1 1975 and extending to the most recent quarter, Q4 2022. Fannie Mae publishes the FNM-HPI approximately mid-month during the first month of each new quarter.
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Fannie Mae's home price estimates are based on preliminary data available as of the date of index estimation and are subject to change as additional data become available. Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. The ESR Group was recently awarded the prestigious 2022 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy based on the accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts published over the 4-year period from 2018 to 2021.
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