Home Price Growth Again Surprises to the Upside
WASHINGTON, DC – Single-family home prices increased 3.0 percent from Q2 2022 to Q2 2023, down from the previous quarter’s revised annual growth rate of 4.9 percent, according to Fannie Mae’s (FNMA/OTCQB) latest Home Price Index (FNM-HPI) reading, a national, repeat-transaction home price index measuring the average, quarterly price change for all single-family properties in the United States, excluding condos. On a quarterly basis, home prices rose a seasonally adjusted 1.9 percent in Q2 2023, an acceleration from 1.3 percent growth in the first quarter. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, home prices increased by 3.6 percent in Q2 2023.
“Once again, home price growth surprised to the upside,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Housing demand remains resilient, which continues to butt up against the near-historically limited supply of existing homes for sale. Moreover, the ‘lock-in effect,’ in which homeowners are disincentivized to list their homes for sale because of how high mortgage rates have risen, is seriously inhibiting the supply of existing homes available for sale. At nearly 8 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, this past quarter's home price growth was well above the historical average."
Duncan continued: “With the 30-year mortgage rate once again approaching 7 percent, it’s yet to be seen whether mortgage demand will finally cool in response, or whether higher rates will simply further suppress supply. If the latter, we expect additional near-term home price appreciation. One consequence of the stronger home price environment is that new home construction is well-supported. Unfortunately, any hopes of a better-balanced home supply situation may rest on the ability of homebuilders to meet ongoing demand.”
The FNM-HPI is produced by aggregating county-level data to create both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted national indices that are representative of the whole country and designed to serve as indicators of general single-family home price trends. The FNM-HPI is publicly available at the national level as a quarterly series with a start date of Q1 1975 and extending to the most recent quarter, Q2 2023. Fannie Mae publishes the FNM-HPI approximately mid-month during the first month of each new quarter.
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Fannie Mae’s home price estimates are based on preliminary data available as of the date of index estimation and are subject to change as additional data become available. Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. The ESR Group was awarded the prestigious 2022 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy based on the accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts published over the 4-year period from 2018 to 2021.
About Fannie Mae
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