HPSI Increases to 83.8 – Upward Grind Resumes, Bringing the Housing Indicator Back Near Its Peak Level
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index™ (HPSI) increased to 83.8 in September as consumer confidence in the home buying and selling market bounced back from a recent dip, suggesting continued gradual improvement in housing activity.
The HPSI Good Time to Sell component increased 13 points on net in September due likely to a strong home price environment coupled with a slight improvement in consumers’ economic outlook. Additionally, the Good Time to Buy component increased 3 points on net as high rental costs may be encouraging more renters to consider homeownership. Although net home price and mortgage rate expectations dipped in September, consumers' confidence in their employment and financial situations climbed 2 and 3 points, respectively, further suggesting a possible firmer footing for housing.
“The HPSI returned near its record high this month, driven primarily by improvement in attitudes about selling a home and strengthening home prices,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “With consumers’ expectations for rental price increases continuing to outpace their expectations for home price growth, many consumers may view homeownership as a more attractive option. This should have positive implications for the housing market, which remains well below historical norms in relation to housing starts. We noted last week that, despite a relatively dismal jobs report, the addition of 8,000 construction jobs, the biggest gain in four months, may be a sign of grudging progress for the supply side of housing. The September HPSI data, combined with the recent increase in construction jobs, are consistent with our expectation for a continued upward grind in housing.
On this webpage you will find a news release with highlights from the HPSI and NHS results, the September Data Release highlighting the consumer attitudinal indicators, month-over-month key indicator data, an overview and white paper about the HPSI, technical notes providing in-depth information about the NHS methodology, the questionnaire used for the survey, and a comparative assessment of Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey and other consumer surveys.
Downloads and Related Links
National Housing Survey Monthly Indicators Archive
Click here for an archived list of Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey Monthly Indicators.