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RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
Ratings Outlook Revised
Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services
On April 20, 2011, Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services (“Standard & Poor’s”) announced that they had revised their outlook on Fannie Mae’s debt issues from “stable” to “negative”. Standard & Poor’s indicated that this change reflects their revision of the outlook of the United States of America from “stable” to “negative” on April 18, 2011, and that pursuant to their government-related entity criteria, the ratings on Fannie Mae (and other government-related entities) are constrained by the long-term sovereign rating on the United States of America.
On April 20, 2011, Standard & Poor’s affirmed that their credit ratings remain “AAA” on Fannie Mae long term senior debt, “A-1+” on Fannie Mae short term senior debt, and “A” on Fannie Mae subordinated debt.
Standard & Poor’s also indicated in their April announcement that they would not raise their ratings and outlook on Fannie Mae (and other government-related entities) above those of the United States government as long as the ratings and outlook on the United States of America remain unchanged. Standard & Poor’s further indicated that if they were to lower the ratings on the United States of America, the ratings on our debt and our issuer credit rating (and those of other government-related entities) would also likely be lowered.
On July 15, 2011, Standard & Poor’s announced that they were placing Fannie Mae’s ratings for short term senior debt and long term senior debt on CreditWatch with negative implications, following a similar action taken by Standard & Poor’s on the long term and short term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America on July 14, 2011. Standard & Poor’s indicated that this action reflects the direct reliance of Fannie Mae on the United States Government.
The action taken by Standard & Poor’s with respect to Fannie Mae’s ratings was announced at the same time as similar ratings actions on other institutions with ties to the United States Government, including Freddie Mac, select Federal Home Loan Banks, the Farm Credit System Banks, and U.S. based clearing houses.
Moody’s Investors Service
On July 13, 2011, Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) announced that they had placed on review for possible downgrade the Aaa rating of institutions directly linked to the United States Government, including Fannie Mae.
Moody’s announced that this review was in conjunction with the review for possible downgrade of the Aaa bond rating of the United States Government, given the rising possibility that the statutory debt limit of the United States will not be raised on a timely basis, leading to a default on United States Treasury debt obligations.
Moody’s indicated that they consider the probability of a default by the United States Treasury on interest payments to be low, but no longer de minimis. Moody’s further indicated that an actual default by the United States Treasury on interest payments, regardless of duration, would fundamentally alter Moody’s assessment of the timeliness of future payments by the United States Government, and a Aaa rating would likely no longer be appropriate.
Fitch, Inc.
On, July 18, 2011, Fitch, Inc. (“Fitch”) announced that they expect the U.S. administration and Congress to conclude their negotiations with an agreement to increase the debt ceiling prior to August 2, 2011, and that they did not anticipate any developments in advance of August 2, 2011 that would result in the U.S. Government’s ‘AAA’ sovereign rating being placed on Rating Watch Negative or downgraded.
Fitch indicated that in the event the debt ceiling was not raised and the U.S. sovereign rating was placed on Ratings Watch Negative, Fitch would immediately place Fannie Mae’s ‘AAA’ issuer and issue ratings on Ratings Watch Negative. Fitch indicated that following resolution of the debt ceiling situation, their ratings of Fannie Mae and other issuers with ties to the U.S. Government would ultimately be aligned with whatever Fitch determines the U.S. sovereign rating should be at that point.
For additional information on the impacts of a credit rating downgrade on Fannie Mae and its securities, please refer to our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2011, including the Risk Factors set forth in Part II, Item 1A therein.