Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Archive
The following is an archived list of Fannie Mae's Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey® results. The survey is conducted quarterly among senior mortgage executives at Fannie Mae’s lending institution partners to track insights into current lending activities and market expectations. Click here for results from the most recent research.
Lenders' Economic Optimism Reaches Survey High As Profit Outlook Remains Subdued
March 27, 2017
Mortgage lender expectations for the economy and home prices reached survey highs amid challenges to profit margins from competition and a shift toward purchase mortgages, according to Fannie Mae’s first quarter 2017 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey®. Lenders from institutions of all sizes were optimistic about the direction of the economy, with the share of lenders who think that the economy is on the right track reaching the highest level since the survey’s inception in the first quarter of 2014. However, demand growth expectations for purchase mortgages declined substantially, mostly attributable to unfavorable mortgage rates. On net, mortgage lenders’ outlook for profit margins rose slightly quarter-over-quarter but remains significantly lower than this time last year.
Post-Election Surge in Mortgage Rates Paints Gloomy Picture for Lenders
December 16, 2016
Mortgage lender expectations for near-term mortgage demand plummeted amid the rapid rise in interest rates following the U.S. presidential election, according to Fannie Mae’s fourth quarter 2016 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey. Conducted after the election, the survey results show that the net share of lenders expecting an increase in purchase mortgage demand over the next three months was at or near survey lows across the different loan types – with a majority of lenders citing “mortgage rates are not favorable" for their worsening near-term outlook. Additionally, for refinance mortgage demand, the net share of lenders reporting growth expectations over the next three months fell to a survey low across all loan types. On net, after three straight quarters of a positive profit margin outlook, lenders reported a significant negative profit margin outlook, reaching a new survey low.
Lender Profit Expectations More Positive as Compliance Cost Concerns Recede
September 15, 2016
Mortgage lenders reported a net positive profit margin outlook for a third consecutive quarter, according to Fannie Mae’s third quarter 2016 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey. Conducted in August, the survey results show that 28 percent of lenders said they expect their firm's profit margin to increase over the next three months, compared with 17 percent who expect it to decrease and 55 percent who expect it to remain roughly the same. When asked what they expect to drive the increase, the top two reasons remain operational efficiency and technology, and consumer demand – the same two factors cited in every survey. However, among lenders who expect a decrease in their profit margin, the share citing government regulatory compliance as a driving factor declined significantly, reaching a survey-low 39 percent and compared with 61 percent during the same period last year. This marks the first time in the survey’s history that government regulatory compliance is not the top reason for eroding profit outlook.
Purchase Mortgage Demand Expected to Grow, Credit Standards to Remain Unchanged, According to Lenders
June 14, 2016
Lender attitudes toward the housing market are positive overall heading into Q3, having recovered from a significant decline in recent quarters, according to Fannie Mae's second quarter 2016 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey. Conducted in May, the survey results show that lenders reporting demand growth for GSE eligible purchase mortgages over the past three months rebounded to 70 percent on net, compared with 20 percent in the prior quarter (Q1 2016) and 71 percent one year ago (Q2 2015). Additionally, lenders' purchase demand expectations for the next three months remain near the levels seen during the same period last year - dipping slightly for GSE eligible and non-GSE eligible mortgages to 60 percent and 43 percent, respectively, but ticking up to 58 percent for government loans.
Fewer Lenders Report Easing of Credit Standards
March 24, 2016
Fannie Mae's first quarter 2016 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey, conducted in February, shows that the share of mortgage lenders reporting easing credit standards over the prior three months fell for the second straight quarter. Also, the share of lenders who expect to ease credit standards over the following three months fell from last quarter for all mortgage types. The survey also shows the net share of lenders reporting purchase mortgage demand for all loan types decreased significantly from a year ago. Lenders expecting greater refinance mortgage demand over the following three months increased dramatically since last quarter. In addition, more lenders expect an increase in their sales of mortgage servicing rights, continuing the upward trend from last quarter.
Further Easing of Mortgage Credit Standards on the Horizon, According to Lenders
December 17, 2015
In Fannie Mae's fourth quarter 2015 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey, more lenders reported expectations to ease rather than tighten mortgage credit standards for GSE-eligible loans and government loans over the next three months, which may help mitigate some of the decline of housing affordability moving into 2016. The share of lenders expecting to ease standards for GSE-eligible loans climbed to 16 percent while the share expecting to tighten standards dropped to 2 percent. In addition, more lenders reported easing as opposed to tightening of credit standards over the prior three months
Mortgage Credit Standards Are Easing, According to Lenders
More lenders report easing of mortgage lending standards across all loan types, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group’s Q3 2015 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey. The survey conducted in August 2015 asked senior mortgage executives questions about their lending organization’s credit standards to determine whether they have eased, tightened, or remained essentially unchanged for GSE eligible, non-GSE eligible, and government loans during the prior three months. Respondents reported that the gap between easing as opposed to tightening over the prior three months jumped to 20 percentage points and 18 percentage points for GSE eligible and non-GSE eligible loans, respectively, reaching new survey highs of “net easing.”
More Mortgage Lenders Feeling Positive on Purchase Demand, Profit Margin, Credit Standards; Survey Results Reflect Optimistic Outlook for Housing in 2015
June 17, 2015
Fannie Mae's second quarter 2015 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey shows that mortgage lenders are optimistic about purchase mortgage demand and their profit margin during the next three months. Conducted in May 2015, the survey shows that lenders’ near-term outlook for both purchase demand and profit margin remains at high levels, and above the 2014 survey results. Additionally, more lenders have continued to report credit loosening than tightening.
Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Results Show Optimistic Mortgage Demand and Profit Outlook with Gradual Credit Easing; Data Support Forecast for Modest Housing Expansion in 2015
March 18, 2015
Fannie Mae's first quarter 2015 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey reveals an improving outlook among mortgage lenders regarding their lending activities and market expectations. Compared with last quarter and the same period last year, this quarter's results show that more lenders expect mortgage demand and their profit margin to grow over the next three months. Results also show that credit tightening observed last year has continued to trend down gradually moving into 2015.
Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Results Show Increased Concerns with Mortgage Demand Growth; Data Support Forecast for Modest Housing Expansion in 2015
December 17, 2014
The results from Fannie Mae's fourth-quarter 2014 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey show that fewer mortgage lenders are reporting tighter credit while weak consumer demand is increasingly cited as driving lenders’ decreased profit margin outlook. Conducted in November 2014, the survey shows that for GSE-eligible loans, the share of lenders who say they have tightened their credit standards during the prior three months has gradually trended down this year, decreasing to 13 percent in the fourth quarter compared to 28 percent in the first quarter. For non-GSE-eligible loans, more lenders reported easing than tightening of credit standards for the second consecutive quarter. Despite this, consumer demand reported for single-family purchase mortgages over the prior three months declined significantly from Q3 to Q4, and the share of lenders expecting demand to go down during the next three months has climbed, supporting expectations that the housing market will continue to grind its way upward next year.
Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Results Show Large Lenders Expect Credit Standards to Ease During Next Three Months
The results from Fannie Mae’s third-quarter 2014 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey show that large lenders’ expectations that underwriting standards will ease over the next three months coincide with overall lenders’ expected pullback in the demand for single-family purchase mortgages. Among those surveyed, larger lenders continue to be more likely than their smaller counterparts to say they expect to ease their credit standards during the next three months, in particular for non-GSE-eligible and government loans.
Fannie Mae Releases New Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey Results
Fannie Mae's new Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey provides key insights into mortgage lender attitudes toward the housing market and complements Fannie Mae’s consumer-focused National Housing Survey.